V-Lab
S&P 500 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
12.90%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
13.25%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
14.32%
increased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 12:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3526 | 7.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1019 | 10.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8661 | 74.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0851 | 6.47*** |
| γ2 | -0.1350 | -6.32*** |
| γ3 | 0.0774 | 4.86*** |
| γ4 | -0.0482 | -3.39*** |
| γ5 | 0.0420 | 2.60*** |
| γ6 | -0.0309 | -2.47** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
Other S&P 500 Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices