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V-Lab

S&P 500 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

12.38%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

12.76%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

13.94%

increased by 1.24%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 12:26 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3774
7.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1016
10.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8665
74.55***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.0873
6.62***
γ2-0.1380
-6.43***
γ30.0788
4.94***
γ4-0.0494
-3.45***
γ50.0430
2.64***
γ6-0.0315
-2.49**

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days