S&P 500 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
13.66%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
13.95%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
14.87%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 12:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3558 | 7.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1018 | 10.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8663 | 74.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0860 | 6.48*** |
| γ2 | -0.1363 | -6.33*** |
| γ3 | 0.0782 | 4.89*** |
| γ4 | -0.0494 | -3.45*** |
| γ5 | 0.0434 | 2.66*** |
| γ6 | -0.0319 | -2.52** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
Other S&P 500 Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices