V-Lab
Russell Midcap Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.81%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
12.41%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
14.24%
increased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5078 | 5.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1182 | 9.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8535 | 62.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0457 | -3.90*** |
| γ2 | 0.0662 | 3.95*** |
| γ3 | -0.0273 | -3.44*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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