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V-Lab

Russell 1000 Growth Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

16.30%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

16.77%

increased by 0.46%

1 Month

18.28%

increased by 1.97%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 1000 Growth Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0316
7.76***
αARCH0.1059
9.81***
βGARCH0.8666
69.89***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0542
5.32***
γ2-0.0738
-4.49***
γ30.0415
2.94***
γ4-0.0337
-3.39***

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0316
7.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1059
9.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8666
69.89***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0542
5.32***
γ2-0.0738
-4.49***
γ30.0415
2.94***
γ4-0.0337
-3.39***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days