V-Lab
Russell 1000 Growth Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
16.30%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
16.77%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
18.28%
increased by 1.97%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0316 | 7.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.1059 | 9.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8666 | 69.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0542 | 5.32*** |
| γ2 | -0.0738 | -4.49*** |
| γ3 | 0.0415 | 2.94*** |
| γ4 | -0.0337 | -3.39*** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0316 | 7.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1059 | 9.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8666 | 69.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0542 | 5.32*** |
| γ2 | -0.0738 | -4.49*** |
| γ3 | 0.0415 | 2.94*** |
| γ4 | -0.0337 | -3.39*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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