V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
16.50%
increased by 0.29%
1 Week
16.50%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
16.50%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4534 | 6.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1025 | 9.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8658 | 73.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0722 | 5.55*** |
| γ2 | -0.1127 | -5.39*** |
| γ3 | 0.0612 | 3.97*** |
| γ4 | -0.0335 | -2.46** |
| γ5 | 0.0279 | 1.89* |
| γ6 | -0.0224 | -2.01** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
22 days
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