V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
11.93%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
12.26%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
13.29%
increased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4713 | 7.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1028 | 9.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8653 | 73.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0732 | 5.68*** |
| γ2 | -0.1140 | -5.48*** |
| γ3 | 0.0616 | 4.02*** |
| γ4 | -0.0336 | -2.48** |
| γ5 | 0.0280 | 1.91* |
| γ6 | -0.0227 | -2.05** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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