Dow Jones Industrial Average Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
11.69%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
12.03%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
13.09%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4608 | 7.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1025 | 9.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8659 | 73.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0729 | 5.58*** |
| γ2 | -0.1138 | -5.41*** |
| γ3 | 0.0619 | 4.00*** |
| γ4 | -0.0343 | -2.50** |
| γ5 | 0.0288 | 1.93* |
| γ6 | -0.0232 | -2.06** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
22 days
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