V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
15.10%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
15.15%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Month
15.34%
decreased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1607 | 6.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0870 | 36.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9877 | 508.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.0238 | 7.16*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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