Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026
1 Day
11.24%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
11.42%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
12.04%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 01:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-lifev = 7.15 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.1484 | 1.74* |
| αscore | 0.0866 | 9.19*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9877 | 130.08*** |
| νDF | 7.1547 | 1.76* |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.1484 | 1.74* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0866 | 9.19*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9877 | 130.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1547 | 1.76* |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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