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Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

15.16%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

15.21%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

15.39%

decreased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 1, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1589
6.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0869
36.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9877
508.06***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.0138
7.17***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days