V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
13.14%
increased by 0.74%
1 Week
13.25%
increased by 0.85%
1 Month
13.64%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 12:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1538 | 6.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0869 | 36.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9876 | 506.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.0163 | 7.15*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
Other Dow Jones Industrial Average Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices