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Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

13.35%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

13.45%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

13.82%

decreased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 7.03 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1528
1.71*
αARCH0.0869
9.12***
βGARCH0.9876
127.00***
νDF7.0318
1.79*

0.988

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1528
1.71*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0869
9.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9876
127.00***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.0318
1.79*

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

55 days