Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
11.22%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
11.40%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
12.03%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1552 | 6.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0866 | 36.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9877 | 509.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.0142 | 7.16*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
Other Dow Jones Industrial Average Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices