V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
15.16%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
15.21%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
15.39%
decreased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 1, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1589 | 6.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0869 | 36.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9877 | 508.06*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.0138 | 7.17*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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