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Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

11.22%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

11.40%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

12.03%

increased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1552
6.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0866
36.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9877
509.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.0142
7.16***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days