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Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026

1 Day

11.24%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Week

11.42%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

12.04%

increased by 0.51%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 01:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/02/2024

to

11/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-lifev = 7.15 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.1484
1.74*
αscore0.0866
9.19***
βpersistence0.9877
130.08***
νDF7.1547
1.76*

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.1484
1.74*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0866
9.19***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9877
130.08***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.1547
1.76*

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days