V-Lab
S&P 500 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
16.35%
increased by 1.45%
1 Week
16.40%
increased by 1.50%
1 Month
16.55%
increased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3569 | 5.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0858 | 40.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9907 | 552.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.0312 | 7.63*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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