Russell Midcap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.52%
increased by 1.26%
1 Week
14.65%
increased by 1.39%
1 Month
15.14%
increased by 1.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-lifev = 9.61 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.3531 | 2.31** |
| αscore | 0.1016 | 7.91*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9845 | 131.20*** |
| νDF | 9.6055 | 1.15 |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.3531 | 2.31** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1016 | 7.91*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9845 | 131.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.6055 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
Other Russell Midcap Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices