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Russell Midcap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

13.52%

increased by 0.56%

1 Week

13.70%

increased by 0.74%

1 Month

14.33%

increased by 1.37%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell Midcap Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2004 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3737
8.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1013
31.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9848
511.59***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.4108
4.63***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days