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Russell Midcap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026

1 Day

18.79%

increased by 5.23%

1 Week

18.78%

increased by 5.22%

1 Month

18.78%

increased by 5.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/05/2024

to

11/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell Midcap Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2004 to Nov 5, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 10.44 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.3966
2.39**
αscore0.1057
7.88***
βpersistence0.9845
134.24***
νDF10.4353
1.06

0.985

Persistence

44d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.3966
2.39**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1057
7.88***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9845
134.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.4353
1.06

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

44 days