Russell Midcap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
13.52%
increased by 0.56%
1 Week
13.70%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
14.33%
increased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3737 | 8.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1013 | 31.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9848 | 511.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.4108 | 4.63*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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