Russell Midcap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
18.79%
increased by 5.23%
1 Week
18.78%
increased by 5.22%
1 Month
18.78%
increased by 5.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Nov 5, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 10.44 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.3966 | 2.39** |
| αscore | 0.1057 | 7.88*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9845 | 134.24*** |
| νDF | 10.4353 | 1.06 |
0.985
Persistence44d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.3966 | 2.39** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1057 | 7.88*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9845 | 134.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.4353 | 1.06 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
44 days
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