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NASDAQ Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

17.22%

increased by 0.24%

1 Week

17.33%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

17.71%

increased by 0.73%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ Composite Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 daysv = 9.30 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.9094
1.88*
αscore0.0856
9.56***
βpersistence0.9901
166.33***
νDF9.3017
1.38

0.990

Persistence

70d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.9094
1.88*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0856
9.56***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9901
166.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.3017
1.38

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days