NASDAQ Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
17.22%
1 Week
17.33%
1 Month
17.71%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.9094 | 1.88* |
| αscore | 0.0856 | 9.56*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9901 | 166.33*** |
| νDF | 9.3017 | 1.38 |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.9094 | 1.88* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0856 | 9.56*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9901 | 166.33*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.3017 | 1.38 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
Other NASDAQ Composite Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices