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NASDAQ Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

13.73%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

13.94%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

14.68%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ Composite Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 daysv = 9.30 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9091
1.88*
αARCH0.0858
9.57***
βGARCH0.9901
166.27***
νDF9.2981
1.38

0.990

Persistence

70d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9091
1.88*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0858
9.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9901
166.27***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.2981
1.38

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days