V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
16.38%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
16.51%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
16.97%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9167 | 7.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0859 | 38.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9902 | 666.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2910 | 5.55*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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