V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
13.73%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
13.94%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
14.68%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 daysv = 9.30 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9091 | 1.88* |
| αARCH | 0.0858 | 9.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9901 | 166.27*** |
| νDF | 9.2981 | 1.38 |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9091 | 1.88* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0858 | 9.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9901 | 166.27*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2981 | 1.38 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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