V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
24.05%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
24.02%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
23.88%
decreased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9340 | 7.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0859 | 38.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9903 | 672.31*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2991 | 5.56*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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