V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
25.71%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
25.65%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Month
25.40%
decreased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9295 | 7.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0858 | 38.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9903 | 670.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2859 | 5.57*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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