V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
16.78%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
17.69%
increased by 0.65%
1 Month
19.75%
increased by 2.71%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8145 | 186.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1979 | 47.02*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0089 | 5.84*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0489 | 5.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9457 | 100.58*** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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