V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
24.99%
increased by 4.59%
1 Week
24.84%
increased by 4.44%
1 Month
23.72%
increased by 3.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8143 | 185.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1979 | 46.91*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0089 | 5.82*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0491 | 5.67*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9456 | 99.95*** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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