V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.48%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
16.21%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
17.44%
increased by 1.60%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8150 | 58.13*** |
| γleverage | 0.1976 | 12.83*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0090 | 2.42** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0487 | 3.64*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9458 | 64.15*** |
0.914
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8150 | 58.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1976 | 12.83*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0090 | 2.42** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0487 | 3.64*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9458 | 64.15*** |
Persistence:
0.914
Half-life:
8 days
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