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NASDAQ Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

16.37%

increased by 2.41%

1 Week

16.76%

increased by 2.80%

1 Month

17.79%

increased by 3.83%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ Composite Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8151
58.16***
γleverage0.1974
12.83***
λ₁tau intercept0.0090
2.42**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0488
3.64***
λ₃tau persistence0.9458
64.08***

0.914

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8151
58.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1974
12.83***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0090
2.42**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0488
3.64***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9458
64.08***

Persistence:

0.914

Half-life:

8 days