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V-Lab

NASDAQ Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

16.78%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

17.69%

increased by 0.65%

1 Month

19.75%

increased by 2.71%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ Composite Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8145
186.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1979
47.02***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0089
5.84***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0489
5.69***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9457
100.58***

Persistence:

0.913

Half-life:

8 days