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V-Lab

NASDAQ Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

24.99%

increased by 4.59%

1 Week

24.84%

increased by 4.44%

1 Month

23.72%

increased by 3.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ Composite Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8143
185.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1979
46.91***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0089
5.82***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0491
5.67***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9456
99.95***

Persistence:

0.913

Half-life:

8 days