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V-Lab

Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

15.12%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

15.28%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

15.78%

increased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0165
2.16**
βGARCH0.8422
59.12***
γleverage0.1545
9.03***
λ₁tau intercept0.0035
2.04**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0244
4.56***
λ₃tau persistence0.9737
169.87***

0.936

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0165
2.16**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8422
59.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1545
9.03***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0035
2.04**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0244
4.56***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9737
169.87***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

10 days