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V-Lab

Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

14.16%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

14.62%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

15.81%

increased by 1.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0166
7.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8422
198.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1546
33.46***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0035
7.01***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0241
9.03***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9740
337.74***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

10 days