V-Lab
Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.12%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
15.28%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
15.78%
increased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0165 | 2.16** |
| βGARCH | 0.8422 | 59.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.1545 | 9.03*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0035 | 2.04** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0244 | 4.56*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9737 | 169.87*** |
0.936
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0165 | 2.16** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8422 | 59.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1545 | 9.03*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0035 | 2.04** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0244 | 4.56*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9737 | 169.87*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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