Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.72%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
15.20%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
16.40%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0165 | 7.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8415 | 197.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1553 | 33.45*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0035 | 7.00*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0243 | 9.01*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9738 | 334.30*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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