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Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

11.60%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

12.36%

increased by 0.61%

1 Month

14.09%

increased by 2.34%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0163
2.15**
βGARCH0.8427
59.41***
γleverage0.1543
9.04***
λ₁tau intercept0.0034
2.03**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0241
4.57***
λ₃tau persistence0.9740
171.90***

0.936

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0163
2.15**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8427
59.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1543
9.04***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0034
2.03**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0241
4.57***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9740
171.90***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

11 days