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V-Lab

Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.72%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

15.20%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

16.40%

increased by 1.24%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0165
7.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8415
197.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1553
33.45***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0035
7.00***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0243
9.01***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9738
334.30***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

10 days