V-Lab
Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
14.75%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
15.14%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
16.21%
increased by 1.25%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0167 | 7.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8418 | 197.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1550 | 33.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0035 | 7.01*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0241 | 9.04*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9740 | 337.25*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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