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V-Lab

Dow Jones South Africa Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

13.73%

decreased by 19.08%

1 Week

1,414,480.29%

increased by 1,414,447.48%

1 Month

1,934,414,019,800,311,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 1,934,414,019,800,311,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones South Africa Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1992 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7791
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0005
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4408
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.0217
46.05***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0947
53.37***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-