Dow Jones South Africa Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, May 8th, 2026
1 Day
6.38%
decreased by 60.55%
1 Week
663,547.52%
increased by 663,480.59%
1 Month
944,393,583,205,646,300,000,000,000.00%
increased by 944,393,583,205,646,300,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 9, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | ||
| 0.7791 | 7,791,360.00 | |
| 0.0005 | 4,830.00 | |
| 0.4408 | 4,407,630.00 | |
| 1.0217 | 46.05 | |
| 0.0947 | 53.37 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1992 to Apr 30, 2026
Jan 1, 1992 to Apr 30, 2026
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