Dow Jones South Africa Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, April 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.26%
increased by 6.49%
1 Week
2,190,033.09%
increased by 2,190,028.32%
1 Month
38,101,149,588,955,973,000,000,000,000.00%
increased by 38,101,149,588,955,973,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, April 17, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | ||
| 0.7610 | 7,609,700.00 | |
| 0.0004 | 3,970.00 | |
| 0.4773 | 4,772,670.00 | |
| 1.0116 | 45.00 | |
| 0.1048 | 54.82 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1992 to Apr 2, 2026
Jan 1, 1992 to Apr 2, 2026
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