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V-Lab

Dow Jones South Africa Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

16.54%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

16.79%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

17.61%

increased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones South Africa Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1992 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.0121
1.46
βGARCH0.8422
59.35***
γleverage0.1314
9.18***
λ₁tau intercept0.2014
2.32**
λ₂forecast adj.0.6779
2.86***
λ₃tau persistence0.1557
0.53

0.920

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0121
1.46
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8422
59.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1314
9.18***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2014
2.32**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6779
2.86***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1557
0.53

Persistence:

0.920

Half-life:

8 days