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V-Lab

OMX Stockholm 30 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.61%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

12.19%

increased by 0.45%

1 Month

13.73%

increased by 1.99%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of OMX Stockholm 30 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0075
2.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8653
311.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1510
33.60***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0233
4.09***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1075
3.80***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8789
27.77***

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days