V-Lab
OMX Stockholm 30 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.82%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
14.30%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
15.63%
increased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0074 | 2.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8650 | 309.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1509 | 33.51*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0236 | 4.04*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1080 | 3.76*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8783 | 27.28*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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