V-Lab
OMX Stockholm 30 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
15.31%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
15.39%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
15.56%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 04:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0075 | 0.68 |
| βGARCH | 0.8658 | 87.38*** |
| γleverage | 0.1506 | 9.70*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0234 | 2.24** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1078 | 3.37*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8786 | 24.50*** |
0.949
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0075 | 0.68 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8658 | 87.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1506 | 9.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0234 | 2.24** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1078 | 3.37*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8786 | 24.50*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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