V-Lab
OMX Stockholm 30 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.61%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
12.19%
increased by 0.45%
1 Month
13.73%
increased by 1.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0075 | 2.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8653 | 311.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1510 | 33.60*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0233 | 4.09*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1075 | 3.80*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8789 | 27.77*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices