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V-Lab

OMX Stockholm 30 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

15.31%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

15.39%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

15.56%

decreased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 04:10 PM UTC

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graph of OMX Stockholm 30 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0075
0.68
βGARCH0.8658
87.38***
γleverage0.1506
9.70***
λ₁tau intercept0.0234
2.24**
λ₂forecast adj.0.1078
3.37***
λ₃tau persistence0.8786
24.50***

0.949

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0075
0.68
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8658
87.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1506
9.70***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0234
2.24**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1078
3.37***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8786
24.50***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days