V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.49%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
13.25%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
14.95%
increased by 2.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8473 | 248.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1792 | 37.23*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0063 | 5.53*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0216 | 3.27*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9739 | 129.25*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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