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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

70.25%

decreased by 2.93%

1 Week

70.02%

decreased by 3.16%

1 Month

69.44%

decreased by 3.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0260
10.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8283
141.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1227
24.79***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0029
3.47***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0306
7.85***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9688
237.34***

Persistence:

0.916

Half-life:

8 days