V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
70.25%
decreased by 2.93%
1 Week
70.02%
decreased by 3.16%
1 Month
69.44%
decreased by 3.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0260 | 10.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8283 | 141.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1227 | 24.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0029 | 3.47*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0306 | 7.85*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9688 | 237.34*** |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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