Skip to main content
V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

77.09%

decreased by 5.35%

1 Week

74.81%

decreased by 7.63%

1 Month

68.87%

decreased by 13.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0279
11.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8349
149.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1194
24.80***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0025
4.08***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0244
7.99***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9748
301.61***

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days