Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
77.09%
decreased by 5.35%
1 Week
74.81%
decreased by 7.63%
1 Month
68.87%
decreased by 13.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0279 | 11.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8349 | 149.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1194 | 24.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0025 | 4.08*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0244 | 7.99*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9748 | 301.61*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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