V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
99.46%
increased by 1.83%
1 Week
98.33%
increased by 0.70%
1 Month
94.21%
decreased by 3.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 69% more than positive returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0136 | 16.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1477 | 47.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9932 | 2,131.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0379 | -13.14*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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