V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
102.73%
decreased by 4.50%
1 Week
102.24%
decreased by 4.99%
1 Month
100.30%
decreased by 6.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 129 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0081 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0796 | 44.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9150 | 551.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4071 | 19.35*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
129 days
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