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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

102.73%

decreased by 4.50%

1 Week

102.24%

decreased by 4.99%

1 Month

100.30%

decreased by 6.93%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 129 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0081
5.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0796
44.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9150
551.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4071
19.35***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

129 days