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V-Lab

S&P/TSX 60 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

10.65%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

10.88%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

11.64%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:57 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.40) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0028
3.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0870
43.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8968
435.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4034
33.71***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days