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V-Lab

S&P/TSX 60 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

14.06%

increased by 0.46%

1 Week

14.13%

increased by 0.53%

1 Month

14.40%

increased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 09:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.40) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0028
0.91
αARCH0.0867
10.83***
βGARCH0.8971
109.39***
γleverage0.4048
8.45***

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0028
0.91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0867
10.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8971
109.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4048
8.45***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days