S&P/TSX 60 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
14.06%
increased by 0.46%
1 Week
14.13%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
14.40%
increased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 09:17 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.40) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0028 | 0.91 |
| αARCH | 0.0867 | 10.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8971 | 109.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.4048 | 8.45*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0028 | 0.91 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0867 | 10.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8971 | 109.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4048 | 8.45*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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