V-Lab
IBEX 35 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
12.64%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
13.31%
increased by 0.72%
1 Month
15.33%
increased by 2.74%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.58) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0205 | 9.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0985 | 38.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8725 | 376.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5840 | 24.17*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices