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V-Lab

IBEX 35 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

12.64%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

13.31%

increased by 0.72%

1 Month

15.33%

increased by 2.74%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.58) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0205
9.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0985
38.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8725
376.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5840
24.17***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days