V-Lab
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
10.47%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
11.12%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
12.99%
increased by 1.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.69) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 28.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8773 | 319.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6908 | 23.02*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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