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V-Lab

CAC 40 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

13.41%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

13.91%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

15.45%

increased by 1.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 04:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CAC 40 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.75) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0872
11.20***
βGARCH0.8829
92.48***
γleverage0.7515
7.02***

0.970

Persistence

23d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0872
11.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8829
92.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7515
7.02***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days