CAC 40 Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
16.49%
increased by 1.41%
1 Week
16.63%
increased by 1.55%
1 Month
17.14%
increased by 2.06%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0104 | 0.73 |
| αARCH | 0.1224 | 7.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9773 | 148.73*** |
| γleverage | -0.1020 | -5.73*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0104 | 0.73 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1224 | 7.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9773 | 148.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1020 | -5.73*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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