V-Lab
Nikkei 225 EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 17th, 2026
1 Day
21.84%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
21.91%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
22.13%
decreased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 239% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 239% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0278 | 2.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.1908 | 9.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9617 | 172.28*** |
| γleverage | -0.1039 | -5.63*** |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0278 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1908 | 9.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9617 | 172.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1039 | -5.63*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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