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V-Lab

S&P 500 Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

11.77%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

12.01%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

12.89%

increased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

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graph of S&P 500 Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0040
0.35
αARCH0.1494
9.01***
βGARCH0.9715
172.32***
γleverage-0.1288
-8.61***

0.972

Persistence

24d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0040
0.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1494
9.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9715
172.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1288
-8.61***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days