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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P 500 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

8.89%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

9.34%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

10.72%

increased by 1.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 211% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 211% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0240
9.83***
αARCH0.0893
5.09***
βGARCH0.7926
67.22***
γleverage0.1882
6.87***

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0240
9.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0893
5.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7926
67.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1882
6.87***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days