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V-Lab

S&P 500 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

14.08%

increased by 3.03%

1 Week

14.19%

increased by 3.14%

1 Month

14.57%

increased by 3.52%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 12:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0192
5.44***
αARCH0.1009
10.84***
βGARCH0.8826
97.09***

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0192
5.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1009
10.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8826
97.09***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days