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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

44.41%

decreased by 1.41%

1 Week

44.37%

decreased by 1.45%

1 Month

44.21%

decreased by 1.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 215 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~215 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0177
5.39***
αARCH0.0957
11.80***
βGARCH0.9010
123.43***

0.997

Persistence

215d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0177
5.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0957
11.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9010
123.43***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

215 days