V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.41%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
44.37%
decreased by 1.45%
1 Month
44.21%
decreased by 1.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 215 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~215 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0177 | 5.39*** |
| αARCH | 0.0957 | 11.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9010 | 123.43*** |
0.997
Persistence215d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0177 | 5.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0957 | 11.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9010 | 123.43*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
215 days
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