V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
27.82%
1 Week
25.53%
1 Month
19.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 18% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.83 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0328 | 6.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.2610 | 19.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7346 | 57.48*** |
| γleverage | 0.0993 | 6.07*** |
| δpower | 0.8326 | 5.21*** |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0328 | 6.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2610 | 19.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7346 | 57.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0993 | 6.07*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8326 | 5.21*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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