V-Lab
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
19.04%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
19.28%
decreased by 1.16%
1 Month
20.06%
decreased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 56% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0555 | 23.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1970 | 66.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7916 | 266.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1338 | 27.55*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6552 | 36.94*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
Other Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Analyses
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on Equity Indices