Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

22.76%

decreased by 2.22%

1 Week

22.74%

decreased by 2.24%

1 Month

22.66%

decreased by 2.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 27, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 52% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.62 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 52% more than positive returnsδ = 1.62 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0571
5.92***
αARCH0.2010
15.79***
βGARCH0.7878
61.72***
γleverage0.1278
6.21***
δpower1.6191
9.15***

0.967

Persistence

21d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0571
5.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2010
15.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7878
61.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1278
6.21***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6191
9.15***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days