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V-Lab

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

19.04%

decreased by 1.40%

1 Week

19.28%

decreased by 1.16%

1 Month

20.06%

decreased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 27, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 56% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0555
23.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1970
66.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7916
266.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1338
27.55***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6552
36.94***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

22 days