Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
22.76%
1 Week
22.74%
1 Month
22.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 52% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.62 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0571 | 5.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.2010 | 15.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7878 | 61.72*** |
| γleverage | 0.1278 | 6.21*** |
| δpower | 1.6191 | 9.15*** |
0.967
Persistence21d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0571 | 5.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2010 | 15.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7878 | 61.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1278 | 6.21*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6191 | 9.15*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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