Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.18%
1 Week
14.77%
1 Month
13.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 13, 1993 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 70% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.97 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0356 | 10.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.1667 | 15.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8166 | 74.77*** |
| γleverage | 0.2688 | 8.04*** |
| δpower | 0.9663 | 7.35*** |
0.949
Persistence13d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0356 | 10.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1667 | 15.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8166 | 74.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2688 | 8.04*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9663 | 7.35*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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