V-Lab
Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
13.69%
1 Week
13.42%
1 Month
12.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 13, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 70% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.96 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0357 | 10.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.1670 | 15.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8163 | 74.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.2696 | 8.06*** |
| δpower | 0.9615 | 7.31*** |
0.949
Persistence13d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0357 | 10.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1670 | 15.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8163 | 74.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2696 | 8.06*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9615 | 7.31*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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