V-Lab
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.75%
1 Week
14.37%
1 Month
13.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 25% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.88 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0192 | 7.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.1448 | 13.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8525 | 81.33*** |
| γleverage | 0.1247 | 4.52*** |
| δpower | 0.8829 | 7.37*** |
0.967
Persistence21d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0192 | 7.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1448 | 13.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8525 | 81.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1247 | 4.52*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8829 | 7.37*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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