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V-Lab
V-Lab

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

14.64%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

14.81%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

15.46%

increased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:13 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 349 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 38% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~349 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 38% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0117
5.95***
αARCH0.1092
8.37***
βGARCH0.8680
106.97***
γleverage0.0418
1.97**

0.998

Persistence

349d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0117
5.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1092
8.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8680
106.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0418
1.97**

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

349 days