V-Lab
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
14.64%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
14.81%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
15.46%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 349 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 38% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~349 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 38% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0117 | 5.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.1092 | 8.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8680 | 106.97*** |
| γleverage | 0.0418 | 1.97** |
0.998
Persistence349d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0117 | 5.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1092 | 8.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8680 | 106.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0418 | 1.97** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
349 days
Other Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Analyses
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on Equity Indices