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V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Saturday, September 5th, 2026

1 Day

10.10%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

10.11%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

10.12%

decreased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2000 to Sep 3, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0001
0.99
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1144
2.30**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8776
42.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0159
0.16

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days