V-Lab
Tadawul All Share TASI Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Saturday, September 5th, 2026
1 Day
10.10%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
10.11%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
10.12%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2000 to Sep 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0001 | 0.99 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1144 | 2.30** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8776 | 42.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0159 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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