Tadawul All Share TASI Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Saturday, October 10th, 2026
1 Day
13.82%
1 Week
13.82%
1 Month
13.83%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2000 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
AMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0001 | 0.99 |
| αARCH | 0.1142 | 2.33** |
| βGARCH | 0.8776 | 42.22*** |
| γleverage | 0.0163 | 0.17 |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeAMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0001 | 0.99 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1142 | 2.33** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8776 | 42.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0163 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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