NASDAQ Composite Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
19.39%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
19.44%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
19.59%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 84% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0485 | 36.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1555 | 36.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7495 | 254.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1301 | 18.36*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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