NASDAQ Composite Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
15.54%
increased by 3.29%
1 Week
15.85%
increased by 3.60%
1 Month
16.81%
increased by 4.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 12:14 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 84% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 84% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0486 | 9.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.1557 | 9.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7489 | 63.59*** |
| γleverage | 0.1302 | 4.61*** |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0486 | 9.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1557 | 9.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7489 | 63.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1302 | 4.61*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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