S&P/TSX Composite Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
10.04%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
10.26%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
10.97%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 93% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0167 | 38.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1348 | 39.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7828 | 319.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1250 | 20.51*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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