S&P/TSX Composite Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
15.88%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
15.83%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Month
15.66%
decreased by 1.19%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 92% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 92% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0166 | 9.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.1351 | 9.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7831 | 80.35*** |
| γleverage | 0.1243 | 5.12*** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0166 | 9.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1351 | 9.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7831 | 80.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1243 | 5.12*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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