V-Lab
S&P/TSX Composite Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
11.41%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
11.55%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
12.02%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 93% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 93% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0167 | 9.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.1348 | 9.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7828 | 80.05*** |
| γleverage | 0.1248 | 5.13*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0167 | 9.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1348 | 9.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7828 | 80.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1248 | 5.13*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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