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V-Lab

S&P/TSX Composite Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

11.49%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

11.65%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

12.20%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX Composite Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 252% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.07 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0181
32.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0925
40.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9066
437.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5267
33.39***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0745
35.84***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days