V-Lab
CAC 40 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
16.98%
1 Week
17.17%
1 Month
17.83%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 04:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.04 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0314 | 8.01*** |
| αARCH | 0.0731 | 8.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9172 | 117.50*** |
| γleverage | 0.8173 | 6.97*** |
| δpower | 1.0420 | 10.66*** |
0.977
Persistence29d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0314 | 8.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0731 | 8.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9172 | 117.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8173 | 6.97*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0420 | 10.66*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
Other APARCH Analyses on Equity Indices