V-Lab
CAC 40 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
10.80%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
11.29%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
12.98%
increased by 1.80%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.04 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0317 | 31.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0733 | 33.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9168 | 468.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8175 | 27.82*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0430 | 42.68*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
Other APARCH Analyses on Equity Indices