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V-Lab

CAC 40 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

16.98%

increased by 0.74%

1 Week

17.17%

increased by 0.93%

1 Month

17.83%

increased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 04:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CAC 40 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.04 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocksδ = 1.04 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0314
8.01***
αARCH0.0731
8.26***
βGARCH0.9172
117.50***
γleverage0.8173
6.97***
δpower1.0420
10.66***

0.977

Persistence

29d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0314
8.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0731
8.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9172
117.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.8173
6.97***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0420
10.66***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

29 days