V-Lab
S&P/ASX 200 APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.49%
1 Week
14.52%
1 Month
14.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0235 | 8.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.0746 | 8.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9134 | 112.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.7587 | 7.35*** |
| δpower | 1.0885 | 10.41*** |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0235 | 8.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0746 | 8.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9134 | 112.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7587 | 7.35*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0885 | 10.41*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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