S&P/ASX 200 APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
12.48%
1 Week
12.61%
1 Month
13.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0233 | 8.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0742 | 8.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9138 | 113.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.7573 | 7.35*** |
| δpower | 1.0884 | 10.41*** |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0233 | 8.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0742 | 8.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9138 | 113.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7573 | 7.35*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0884 | 10.41*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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