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V-Lab

S&P/ASX 200 APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

14.49%

increased by 1.07%

1 Week

14.52%

increased by 1.10%

1 Month

14.61%

increased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocksδ = 1.09 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0235
8.84***
αARCH0.0746
8.98***
βGARCH0.9134
112.76***
γleverage0.7587
7.35***
δpower1.0885
10.41***

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0235
8.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0746
8.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9134
112.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7587
7.35***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0885
10.41***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days