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S&P/ASX 200 APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

12.48%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Week

12.61%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

13.03%

decreased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:31 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocksδ = 1.09 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0233
8.83***
αARCH0.0742
8.97***
βGARCH0.9138
113.14***
γleverage0.7573
7.35***
δpower1.0884
10.41***

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0233
8.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0742
8.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9138
113.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7573
7.35***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0884
10.41***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days