S&P/ASX 200 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.26%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
9.54%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
10.46%
increased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9896 | 10.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0966 | 9.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8813 | 83.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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