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S&P/ASX 200 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026

1 Day

13.07%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

13.13%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

13.35%

increased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 02:02 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/13/2024

to

11/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Nov 13, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9806
10.95***
αARCH0.0960
9.41***
βGARCH0.8814
83.66***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
0.27

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9806
10.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0960
9.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8814
83.66***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
0.27

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days