Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P/ASX 200 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

13.68%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

13.71%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

13.83%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9888
10.90***
αARCH0.0969
9.45***
βGARCH0.8807
83.37***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.35

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9888
10.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0969
9.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8807
83.37***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.35

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days