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V-Lab

S&P/ASX 200 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

8.98%

increased by 0.59%

1 Week

9.28%

increased by 0.89%

1 Month

10.26%

increased by 1.87%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9936
10.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0971
9.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8807
83.34***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.41

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days