Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
18.84%
increased by 2.03%
1 Week
18.73%
increased by 1.92%
1 Month
18.41%
increased by 1.60%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0743 | 3.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1433 | 8.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7979 | 37.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.1003 | 2.59*** |
| γ2 | -0.1780 | -3.41*** |
| γ3 | 0.1281 | 4.75*** |
| γ4 | -0.0846 | -4.10*** |
| γ5 | 0.0470 | 2.66*** |
| γ6 | -0.0115 | -0.74 |
| γ7 | -0.0001 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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