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V-Lab
V-Lab

Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026

1 Day

12.41%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

13.08%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

15.18%

increased by 2.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 28, 2013 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2348
4.85***
αARCH0.1919
10.27***
βGARCH0.7855
46.67***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.3864
-2.06**
γ20.6466
2.07**
γ3-0.4019
-1.40
γ40.3245
1.18
γ5-0.6573
-2.36**
γ61.1446
4.53***
γ7-0.9929
-5.84***

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2348
4.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1919
10.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7855
46.67***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.3864
-2.06**
γ20.6466
2.07**
γ3-0.4019
-1.40
γ40.3245
1.18
γ5-0.6573
-2.36**
γ61.1446
4.53***
γ7-0.9929
-5.84***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days