Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
10.51%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
11.19%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
13.27%
increased by 2.13%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2468 | 4.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1934 | 10.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7842 | 46.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.3870 | -1.96** |
| γ2 | 0.6415 | 1.93* |
| γ3 | -0.3877 | -1.28 |
| γ4 | 0.3191 | 1.13 |
| γ5 | -0.6703 | -2.44** |
| γ6 | 1.1510 | 4.72*** |
| γ7 | -0.9794 | -5.76*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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