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V-Lab

Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

10.13%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

10.98%

increased by 0.25%

1 Month

13.49%

increased by 2.76%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 28, 2013 to Aug 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2448
4.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1932
10.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7844
46.54***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.3870
-2.00**
γ20.6441
1.99**
γ3-0.3948
-1.34
γ40.3233
1.16
γ5-0.6656
-2.41**
γ61.1438
4.63***
γ7-0.9781
-5.76***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days