V-Lab
Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
10.13%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
10.98%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
13.49%
increased by 2.76%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Aug 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2448 | 4.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1932 | 10.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7844 | 46.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.3870 | -2.00** |
| γ2 | 0.6441 | 1.99** |
| γ3 | -0.3948 | -1.34 |
| γ4 | 0.3233 | 1.16 |
| γ5 | -0.6656 | -2.41** |
| γ6 | 1.1438 | 4.63*** |
| γ7 | -0.9781 | -5.76*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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