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V-Lab

Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

8.67%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

8.96%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Month

10.06%

increased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 28, 2013 to Jul 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 46% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0104
16.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1591
21.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8046
257.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0726
5.18***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days