Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
8.67%
1 Week
8.96%
1 Month
10.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 46% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0104 | 16.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1591 | 21.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8046 | 257.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0726 | 5.18*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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