V-Lab
Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026
1 Day
11.94%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
12.20%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
13.50%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Sep 10, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 58% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.1386 | 5.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7927 | 49.91*** |
| γleverage | 0.0804 | 2.67*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0411 | 1.20 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5476 | 3.83*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.4183 | 2.90*** |
0.971
Persistence24d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1386 | 5.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7927 | 49.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0804 | 2.67*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0411 | 1.20 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5476 | 3.83*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4183 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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