Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
9.16%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
9.82%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
12.22%
increased by 2.48%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 58% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1407 | 34.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7909 | 195.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0813 | 13.09*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0419 | 7.56*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5374 | 11.19*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4286 | 7.85*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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