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V-Lab

NASDAQ 100 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

19.01%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

20.04%

increased by 0.69%

1 Month

22.46%

increased by 3.11%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ 100 MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8215
168.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1872
45.07***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0087
5.16***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0461
6.06***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9502
116.84***

Persistence:

0.915

Half-life:

8 days