V-Lab
NASDAQ 100 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
19.01%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
20.04%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
22.46%
increased by 3.11%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8215 | 168.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1872 | 45.07*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0087 | 5.16*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0461 | 6.06*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9502 | 116.84*** |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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