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V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

15.82%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

16.49%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

18.00%

increased by 1.75%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 149% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0576
22.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8040
98.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0858
17.84***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0093
6.41***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0378
6.43***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9577
151.89***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days