Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.82%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
16.49%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
18.00%
increased by 1.75%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 149% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0576 | 22.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8040 | 98.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0858 | 17.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0093 | 6.41*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0378 | 6.43*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9577 | 151.89*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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