V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
15.26%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
15.76%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
16.91%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 05:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 150% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0573 | 22.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8047 | 98.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0860 | 17.89*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0093 | 6.42*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0378 | 6.43*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9576 | 151.77*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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