Skip to main content
V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

15.26%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

15.76%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Month

16.91%

increased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 05:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 150% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0573
22.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8047
98.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0860
17.89***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0093
6.42***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0378
6.43***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9576
151.77***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days