Skip to main content
V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

15.19%

increased by 0.36%

1 Week

15.41%

increased by 0.58%

1 Month

16.22%

increased by 1.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0112
6.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0653
18.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9277
253.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3650
13.27***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

99 days