V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.24%
increased by 0.27%
1 Week
14.49%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
15.39%
increased by 1.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0111 | 1.67* |
| αARCH | 0.0651 | 4.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9279 | 63.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.3652 | 3.34*** |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0111 | 1.67* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0651 | 4.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9279 | 63.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3652 | 3.34*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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