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Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.24%

increased by 0.27%

1 Week

14.49%

increased by 0.52%

1 Month

15.39%

increased by 1.42%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0111
1.67*
αARCH0.0651
4.62***
βGARCH0.9279
63.96***
γleverage0.3652
3.34***

0.993

Persistence

99d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0111
1.67*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0651
4.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9279
63.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3652
3.34***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

99 days