Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.19%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
15.41%
increased by 0.58%
1 Month
16.22%
increased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0112 | 6.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0653 | 18.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9277 | 253.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3650 | 13.27*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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