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V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

15.09%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

15.34%

increased by 0.20%

1 Month

16.21%

increased by 1.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 69 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 69 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 69-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0239
4.42***
αARCH0.0678
5.84***
βGARCH0.9222
92.48***

0.990

Persistence

69d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0239
4.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0678
5.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9222
92.48***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days