V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.74%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
15.96%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
16.77%
increased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 69 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 69 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0240 | 17.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0679 | 23.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9221 | 369.72*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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