V-Lab
Russell 2000 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.56%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
14.73%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
15.35%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~118 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0147 | 4.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.0969 | 11.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8973 | 115.63*** |
0.994
Persistence118d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0147 | 4.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0969 | 11.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8973 | 115.63*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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