Russell 2000 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.38%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
13.57%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
14.31%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0147 | 19.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0974 | 46.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8968 | 460.12*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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