V-Lab
AEX-Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
10.61%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
10.98%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
12.23%
increased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 04:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0237 | 4.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.1059 | 11.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8775 | 85.49*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0237 | 4.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1059 | 11.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8775 | 85.49*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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