Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

AEX-Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

10.61%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

10.98%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

12.23%

increased by 1.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 04:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0237
4.88***
αARCH0.1059
11.69***
βGARCH0.8775
85.49***

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0237
4.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1059
11.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8775
85.49***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days