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V-Lab

Dow Jones South Africa Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

16.32%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

16.40%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

16.69%

increased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:47 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones South Africa Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1992 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0244
5.94***
αARCH0.0859
9.12***
βGARCH0.8961
82.27***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0244
5.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0859
9.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8961
82.27***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days