V-Lab
Dow Jones South Africa Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
16.32%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
16.40%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
16.69%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:47 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1992 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0244 | 5.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0859 | 9.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8961 | 82.27*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0244 | 5.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0859 | 9.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8961 | 82.27*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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