Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
75.58%
decreased by 3.05%
1 Week
75.35%
decreased by 3.28%
1 Month
74.43%
decreased by 4.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 183 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0157 | 19.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0759 | 42.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9203 | 545.23*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
183 days
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